Day 287 - An Abysmal October
Over a month ago, when September hit, it came roaring in like the bulls in Pamplona. Here I am almost 1/2 way through October and I don't have a year bird to show for it. How abysmal. My list of needs for the month is short, and truthfully it is mostly end loaded looking at historical arrivals and expectations. BUT, I still thought I would carve out a species or two by now. It's that point in the year where every species is crucial. I passed on one chase already because of the distance to see the bird. The odds of another being reported closer to home in the next 2 months is pretty high, so it was worth saving the effort. I'm going to need the time for a longer chase for something crucial in the next 80 days. By my math that's about how much time is left (give or take a day).
I chased another species that I wasn't sure I would get a shot at the rest of the year--and I missed it. I waited maybe a couple hours too long to go when I should have gone immediately. I wrestled with the idea of chasing, but thought the bird would likely still be around... Oops. This might be a costly miscue on my part as the bird was close enough to get to in 30 minutes. My hopes are that it is reported again in the coming days and I can still track it down.
How do things so suddenly come to a halt like they have these past 2 weeks? I've had plenty of streaks like this during the year where there just aren't any birds to see. But as the days grow shorter and the number of birds I need gets smaller, I rely heavily on rarities and reports from others to start tacking on those birds I need. There will be a point where if I don't start seeing a new bird here and there I will truly be in trouble. It's probably not going to be in October as I could realistically go the next 18 days without adding a new year bird and still end my year on a high note. November will be more telling...
If I were to strikeout the remainder of the month, I would expect a big first couple weeks in November to make up for it. BUT, I don't think it will come to that. I am predicting 2-3 new year birds in the next 10 days. Whether I find something, or I chase other birders finds. I will see new birds. After that the last week of the month will bring a couple more. I still think my 5-6 new birds for the month are plausible, and with some luck I might tack on an extra 1 or 2 to that. I have my fingers crossed that things will pick up, and this abysmal start will turn into an amazing end.
New birds this post: 0
Year List: 339
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